School's Out Forever!
Schools closing in Marlboro and Readsboro, Vt what this might mean for WIndham's Future?
I recently found out that the Towns of Marlboro and Readsboro in Vermont have decided to close their schools due to low enrollment. In 2025, Marlboro had 69 children in its preK-8 Elementary School. By 2026, Marlboro Elementary’s enrollment was down to just over 50 students. Readsboro had 36 students enrolled in preK-6 in 2025. By 2026, Readsbore is reported to have 37 students. Both communities are found in Windham County, Vermont total population of 45,905 residents as of the 2020 census. These numbers should be stark reminders that Windham, NY is also facing population collapse in our near future.
The closer we look at these two towns, the more they mirror our communities issuses. Marlboro had 1,722 residents according to the 2020 census, with a projected loss of 360 residents by the ACS 2024 report, leaving a total population of only 1,362 residents. Readsboro (Census Designated Place, or CDP) had a population of 309 residents as of the 2020 census. The projected population of Readsboro in 2024 was down to 299 residents, a loss of only 1 resident. These types of losses might seem minor until you factor in that both communities were facing a declining population of children 0-14. In the case of Marlboro, that decline meant zero children were enrolling in the kindergarten for the 2026-27 School year.
However, it represented a loss of 12 stuents with a projection of no residents aged 0-14 according to the 2024 Census report. What makes this interesting from a statistical standpoint is how similar in size Windham County, Vt to Greene County, Ny. And how similar in size Marlboro, Vt is to Windham, Ny. We must look long and hard at these lessons and learn from them.
Windham reported in the 2024-25 school year that 265 students were present in our central school district. If one averages this out for the communities involved, it means fewer than 76 students per town are now enrolled in the school. It isn’t hard to see, in another 10 years, how the Windham-Ashland-Jewett Central School District might end up with fewer than 200 students enrolled K-12. Fortunately for WAJ, we are not facing single-digit class sizes for some time yet. However, the town of Andes, Ny is facing single-digit class sizes with a total enrollment of 64 students K-12 in Andes, Central District School. It is hard to see a future where Andes lasts much longer with a school-aged population so low. And Windham is facing these same problems in the future.
To understand Windham’s future, we must first go back to the 1999-2000 school year for WAJ. The 1999-2000 school year had a total enrollment of 550 students, K-12. This also happens to be peak enrollment for WAJ for the last 25 years. By 2025, the enrollment was 265 students. This represents a loss of 285 students or 51.8% roughly in 25 year period. This is even with our population in Windham rising to 1,708 residents in the 2020 Census.
If we make a few assumptions about stable decline, we will find that our school’s enrollment will fall to fewer than 200 total students by the 2036-2037 school year. This is using modelling that doesn’t take into account any general population trends. Now, when I input these trends in the community decline as well, the 2052-2053 school year enrollment falls to around 105 students. The school’s enrollment falls below 200 by the 2033-34 school year. By the 2046-47 school year, the average class size will be 9.8 students, and by the 2052-53 school year, classes will average 8.1 students.
Now, of course, you will say that I don’t have a crystal ball. You’re correct, I cannot make credible predictions about certain events. For example, we might have a massive desertification effect occur in the Western and Plains states in the 2030s. This might drive people East just as the Dust Bowl drove people West in the 1930s. And certainly that would change all these predictions greatly as thousands of new residents pour into the Eastern Seaboard states. That could happen. Is it likely to happen within 4-10 years? Probably not. So, I wouldn’t wait for some hand of God-like action to solve our population problems. Instead, I would bet on the School Closures and consolidations to occur first.
Many people might think that I’m trying to use scare tactics or that I’m a fearmonger. No, I’m a realist. If we do nothing at all, our future is bleak with declining enrollment in our local schools, and our residents’ median age will reach 65.2 years of age by 2050. We are a community that is balancing on the razor's edge of population collapse right now. However, we can solve these problems if we act fast and decisively now.
If we don’t want to see a ghost town full of elderly people and decaying buildings, we have to create a strong pro-local movement. We need to invest in our community through policies that attract and retain local residents with affordable housing and well-paying careers. We need to create a regional model that builds up the entire Mountaintop region with jobs, new residents, and long-term sustainable growth. We need to focus on what makes us a strong community and build together a new and stronger Windham. And in building a stronger Windham, a stronger Mountaintop!
Or we can pack up the moving vans and watch our community slowly disappear with each family that moves away. We can leave the community and let it slowly die. I, for one, am not ready to give up on Windham. That is why I’m working on collecting the data we will need to make our community stronger in 2026 and beyond. The data we will use to understand where our strengths are and where our weaknesses are. Ignorance of ourselves and our problems is our real enemy— as Sun Tzu wrote: “ know yourself and know your enemy and you will be victorious in a hundred battles. Know neither yourself nor your enemy, and you will never be victorious.” We must first know ourselves before we can solve problems.